On paper, both offenses rank at the top of the NFL, setting up what should be an offensive explosion ... right?
The excitement is through the roof, the buzz around town is electric, it’s Super Bowl 54 in Miami. The San Francisco 49ers, after breezing their way through the NFC, punched their ticket to the Super Bowl against the AFC-winning Kansas City Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes versus Jimmy Garoppolo. George Kittle versus Travis Kelce. Kyle Shanahan versus Andy Reid. The competition is steep, and the matchups are fierce. On paper, both offenses rank at the top of the NFL, setting up what should be an offensive explosion … right?
What the 49ers defense has done this season has been well-documented. One of, if not the best defenses in the NFL going up against a good, but not great, Chiefs defense. That favors the 49ers if they are able to contain Mahomes and the Chiefs explosive play-makers.
The reigning NFL MVP going up against one of the best defenses in recent memory. You couldn’t ask for a better matchup. If the 49ers are to walk away from Super Bowl 54 as champions, it starts and ends with containing Mahomes.
That is absolutely easier said than done. What Mahomes has done on the field throughout his short, but unbelievable career has been nothing short of dominant. For the 49ers, they won’t look to completely neutralize Mahomes, because I don’t think that’s really possible. Just like with arch-rival Russell Wilson, the 49ers defense, especially their front seven, will have their hands full getting after Mahomes on Sunday.
The @49ers defense relies on a 4-man pass rush on early downs, with a higher blitz rate on 3rd down.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 29, 2020
1st Down – 18% (27th)
2nd Down – 21% (25th)
3rd Down – 34% (14th)#SBLIV | #GoNiners pic.twitter.com/RFoXP5vhzw
The key? Get pressure on Mahomes—but not too much. That may sound weird, so I’ll explain. It’s always good to pressure opposing quarterbacks, yes. When it comes to blitzing the quarterback, Mahomes is different. His numbers against the blitz are very good.
Patrick Mahomes (Career by # of Pass Rushers):
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 16, 2020
• 16 of 18 career INT against 4-or-fewer pass rushers (only 2 INT vs blitz)
• 115.8 passer rating vs blitz since 2017 (2nd among QB)
• Avg TTT is faster vs blitz (2.73 seconds) than no blitz (2.91)#TENvsKC | #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/LpLIASkIjk
For the 49ers, it will be important to apply the heavy dose of pressure they’ve brought all season while leaving six to seven men in coverage. Pressure Mahomes into making bad throws. Throwing an all-out blitz at him will only open up plays downfield because of his ability to escape pressure and find open receivers.
With Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner on the field this postseason, the 49ers are allowing a QBR of .7(!). On 13 third down drop backs, they’ve piled up 5 sacks and 8 pressures.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) February 1, 2020
Incredible disruption.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid may not be able to run as fast as Tyreek Hill, and he may not be as powerful and explosive as Kelce, but he is certainly a weapon in his own way. With a lot of talk centered around Kyle Shanahan and his offensive wizardry, Reid’s offensive scheme can impact a game just as much, and maybe even more than Shanahan.
On Thursday, Shanahan discussed how Reid has evolved over his career, and what makes him so dynamic as a play caller:
“I think he’s done it his whole career. When you’re coaching you watch the game two ways. As you watch it, you’re looking at personnel and matchups and trying to understand the talent. Then you have to look at it completely from a schematic standpoint and how guys set people up and the way they call plays, whether it’s an offensive guy and a defensive guy. Anytime that you watch Andy since he came into the league, watching him in Philly and having all of that tape, and then watching him go to Kansas City and do it with different quarterbacks, and watch how he evolves with that. It’s always the foundation of what he believes in. He’s always adjusting his personnel, he’s had different personnel throughout his time. He’s always been a very fun guy to watch, and that’s why he’s one of the best.”
In terms of actual players, the Chiefs have some of the league’s most dynamic playmakers. At receiver, the speed of Hill, Mecole Hardman, and Sammy Watkins give the Chiefs multiple weapons that are capable of taking the top off any defense.
At cornerback, the 49ers have Richard Sherman, Emmanuel Moseley, and Ahkello Witherspoon. Hill is much faster than anybody the 49ers have on defense. Fortunately for the 49ers, their defensive backfield, starting with Sherman, is smart, and football-smarts can over-compensate for a lack of speed.
Just when we thought Tyreek Hill was going to call out
— ESPN (@espn) January 30, 2020
Richard Sherman, he switches it up and praises the 49ers cornerback instead. pic.twitter.com/g133tPVNDd
The Chiefs offense, as explosive and dynamic as it is, lacks the running game of the 49ers. Kyle Shanahan’s offense is capable of beating teams on the ground or through the air, while the Chiefs offense relies mostly on their passing attack.
Kansas City’s rushing attack of Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy isn’t bad, it’s just nothing that should intimidate the 49ers defense. The 49ers have faced some of the league’s best running backs this season, and have fared pretty well against a lot of them. If Sunday is similar to how the 49ers have played against the run lately, the Chiefs running game will not be a factor.
One storyline to watch for Super Bowl LIV: Sounds like #Chiefs RB LeSean McCoy may be inactive tomorrow, sources say. That’s the way it’s heading at this point. Two RBs would be active, but KC would use the spot to add depth on the D-line or another key area.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) February 1, 2020
My favorite part of this game is the tight end matchup. How lucky are we to be watching a Super Bowl with the two best tight ends in the league facing off against one another. Both George Kittle and Travis Kelce are known as No. 1 and No. 2 tight ends in the league, but which one is which? Well, it depends on who you ask.
Rob Gronkowski, asked if he sees more of himself in Kelce or Kittle: "I would say I’m definitely more of like Kittle. Just the attitude he brings to the table, just the grit he brings into the trenches. … He wants to be that guy that’s fierce out there, and just wrecking guys."
— Phil Barber (@Skinny_Post) January 30, 2020
.@gkittle46 and @tkelce dishing out compliments to each other on stage in Miami. #SBLIV
— NFL (@NFL) January 28, 2020
????: #SBOpeningNight on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/5ncSop5AmB
Both Kittle and Kelce will have a big impact on this game because both are just too important to their respective offenses. Whether it’s catching passes and breaking off big plays, or shedding a few key blocks, these two will put on a show Sunday.
The 49ers defense has the edge over the Chiefs, and probably the rest of the NFL. Having said that, playing against the Chiefs isn’t exactly a walk in the park. Pressuring Garoppolo will be Frank Clark (8 sacks) and Chris Jones (9 sacks) off the defensive line. The 49ers offensive line has done a good job of pass-blocking this season, especially as of late, but will have their hands full Sunday with this dynamic pass-rush duo.
Over the middle of the field is where the Chiefs may be in trouble. Back deep at safety, the Chiefs have Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill, who are one of the better safety tandems in the league.
Kyle Shanahan had this to say about Mathieu and the energy he brings to the Chiefs defense, along with his chirping at opposing teams play-callers:
“There’s some guys who guess and are wreckless, and there are some guys who are prepared. He’s a hard guy to get, and it’s just a matter of time before he’s going to make plays. He’s one of the main reasons this defense has been so good. I’ve seen him a lot over his career, and I think he’s at the top of his game now. But yeah you get that here and there from players, I’ve gotten better at avoiding it.”
At linebacker though, the 49ers offense can expose Anthony Hitchens and Damien Wilson with the likes of Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Emmanuel Sanders. If the Chiefs focus heavily on stopping the 49ers running game, which I believe they will, it will open up plenty of opportunities for Garoppolo and his pass-catchers in the play-action game. Play action is the focal point of the 49ers passing game, and if the Chiefs force Garoppolo to beat them through the air, I like the 49ers chances on offense.
There is a zero percent chance that Garoppolo will attempt only eight passes as he did against Green Bay two weeks ago. The Chiefs defense will make sure of that. However many passes Garoppolo does attempt depends on how the 49ers run the ball. After Raheem Mostert‘s monster game against the Packers, the Chiefs defense will make stopping the 49ers rushing attack priority No. 1.
They will try, but I don’t think they will have much success. The 49ers running game is so lethal because of the Shanahan outside-zone run, something that not many teams (except maybe the 49ers defense themselves) are capable of stopping. The Chiefs defense has been poor against the run all season, before stopping the NFL’s leading-rusher Derrick Henry two weeks ago. As impressive as a performance as that was, the 49ers rushing attack is different.
Stopping an outside-zone run requires defensive ends that are stout and athletic enough to bounce off blocks in order to chase down opposing teams running backs. The Chiefs are not that team off the edge, their edge presence against the run is rather soft, and that’s why I believe the 49ers rushing attack should be able to have some success Sunday.
This is a very hard game to predict. Two good defenses, and two great offenses. Will Mahomes tear up the 49ers defense, or will they contain him? Will the 49ers run the ball down the Chiefs throat or will they force Garoppolo to beat them through the air? I think that we can expect a little bit of everything on Sunday.
I’ve gone back-and-forth between picking the Chiefs and 49ers this week. Mahomes is capable of winning a Super Bowl on his talent alone, but the 49ers defense is historically dominant. If Mahomes is unable to take the top off the 49er defense, what else does he have? There’s not much of a running game.
The Chiefs defense is good, but they have to account for the 49ers rushing attack, something they may need to pull out all the stops for. If they do that, then the 49ers are capable of beating them through the air. That’s the deciding factor for me, the 49ers are more two-dimensional on offense, while the Chiefs are more one-dimensional. A very, very, very good one-dimensional offense I might add.
Prediction: 49ers 31, Chiefs 27
Kyle Shanahan has given Tevin Coleman the green light. He will play Sunday.
— Taylor Wirth (@WirthTM) January 31, 2020
.@PFF_George and @PFF_Steve talking with elder Shanahan.
— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) January 31, 2020
Here he discusses how outside zone principles haven't changed, but the diversity of formation has made it more difficult to identify https://t.co/Ed3mexEpwL pic.twitter.com/DC5abPjc9B
People outside KC don’t seem to get it yet—Pat is just different. Kansas City is so lucky. And you know what? Pat and Brittany are lucky to have KC. pic.twitter.com/GbMmFieVxZ
— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) January 31, 2020
Some last minute Super Bowl LIV: the 49ers brought in left-footed punter Brad Wing for a workout to simulate Dustin Colquitt of the Chiefs. No stone left unturned to get ready for Sunday.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) January 31, 2020
A week-by-week look at the @49ers' chances to win #SBLIV. (via @cfrelund) pic.twitter.com/MFyamV7rW6
— NFL (@NFL) January 30, 2020
#49ers Jimmy Garoppolo sets the record straight on George Kittle’s accusation he’s the world’s worst at text messages pic.twitter.com/Dryd2OOJBD
— Cam Inman (@CamInman) January 30, 2020
Nope, never mind.
Richard Sherman on Jimmy Garoppolo criticism:
— Taylor Wirth (@WirthTM) January 29, 2020
“They find something new to criticize him for every day, but they never criticize his looks.”
Taylor Wirth is SFBay’s San Francisco 49ers beat writer. Follow @SFBay and @WirthTM on Twitter and at SFBay.ca for full coverage of 49ers football.
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